UPDATE
It seems the coup has failed. Erdoğan is already talking about "cleansing" the military, and the high price that will need to be paid. I guess this makes most of this post irrelevant, but I'll leave it up for comment anyway. Let's see how things develop from here.Very worried about the news coming out of Turkey this morning. But why, you may ask? Isn't this par for the course over there? Don't they have a long history of the military stepping in to set things right every time the government runs off the rails? Well, okay; let's set aside the loss of life and the inherent issues in having "military coup" as an accepted political mechanism in a democratic country—and let's look at this case in particular.
Here's what I'm hearing: This isn't a typical Turkish military uprising. This is an uprising by one faction within military. The police, as well as a large portion of the military has remained loyal to Erdoğan. There is also a substantial portion of the military that hasn't picked a side yet. If this is true, there are three potentially likely outcomes:
- Protracted civil war:
On top of the wholesale death & destruction you see in any war, here's what else you can expect:
- The Syrian/Iraqi conflict spilling over into Turkey, possibly turning the entire region into one giant clusterfuck.
- The Kurds declaring themselves a separate state.
- A giant humanitarian crisis. If you thought the waves of refugees coming into Europe from Syria were overwhelming, batten down the hatches.
- Erdoğan Wins:
- He gaols and/or executes everybody who ever looked at him funny, shuts down the media, and cements himself as theocratic dictator for life. Goodbye secular democracy in Turkey.
- Erdoğan Loses:
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On the face of it, this seems like the best possible outcome, and it probably is, but I think there's hidden dangers here too.
You may have heard Erdoğan saying things like, "Turkey will not be ruled from Pennsylvania". This is a reference to Fethullah Gülen, a Turkish religious leader living in exile in America, who is believed to have been working with parts of the US government to undermine Erdoğan's authority for a while now.
So, why would the Yanks have an interest in getting rid of Erdoğan? Well, there's pretty clear evidence that Turkey has been attacking US-backed Kurdish fighters in Syria, as well as—possibly—supplying so-called ISIS factions who are fighting against the Kurds. There's also been talk that Erdoğan has been using Syrian refugees as a loaded-gun in a heavy-handed attempt to extort money from the EU.
If this uprising is being led by Gülen sympathisers, you can bet there'll be a concerted effort to install one of their own into power—probably through "democratic" elections. The problem is, the Gülen movement may not be that much better. There's a good chance they'd just be replacing an "isolated" authoritarian theocrat with an authoritarian theocrat "friendly" towards America & the EU.
Good luck Turkey. I hope I'm wrong and this whole mess works out well for you.
2 comments :
I think it's already the 'Erdogan wins' scenario. You may have read of people saying it was staged. The soldiers looked stunned as if they couldn't believe it was happening. Either they were told 'be here, because this is happening' and then the messages from the mosques went out, telling the AKP supporters to go to the streets to protest the coup. OR the soldiers were told it couldn't fail. Regardless how it happened, look at who is winning after just over 24 hours:
1. Arrests of more than 2000 military personnel - Erdogan wants to 'clean up' the military, which means install his people.
2. Sacking of 1500+ judiciary - ditto above, and possibly make legislative changes to reinstate capital punishment.
Reasons why I'm suss, in addition to the above: the media and internet were not shut down... Whenever someone farts in a way that the Erdogan government doesn't like, he shuts down media - mainstream and social. Not this time. Why? Also, Incirlik airbase (US base in Adana, gateway to the east) has been closed, and air space closed. The US were running bombing flights from there to Syria and ISIS targets. Turkey has already asked for Gulen to be sent back. My bet is they will use Incirlik as the bargaining chip.
Things are looking really bad. This wasn't a coup like previous ones. There was no manifesto that I heard of, and it all resolved far too quickly but in the government's favour, which is unprecedented as well I think. The way Erdogan flew into Istanbul for his presser - so suss. Barely 5 hours after it had gone down. And the images of Turkish military being abused, beaten with belts, kicked... disgusting. Turks have always shown utmost respect for their soldiers. But they were being beaten as treasonous opponents of democracy. Which is bullshit because the Erdogan government is not democratic. He is setting himself up to be a dictator, and next stop will be a police state and Shariah law.
It's believable and unbelievable at the same time.
I fear you're right about the police state and sharia law. One of the benefits that a strict code of moral policing (like sharia) gives you, is that it makes it trivial to gaol anyone who looks even remotely threatening to you politically. Anwar Ibrahim being gaoled for sodomy in Malaysia comes to mind as an example. In this regard, I think your point about Erdoğan cleansing the judiciary is crucial. We already know how much he likes locking up people who criticise him, and one can only imagine that this will now accelerate.
Which leads me onto the stuff about the media. During the time that I was watching the live coverage, reporters were saying that the rebels had seized the national broadcaster and that Erdoğan had turned to social media to encourage people to get out onto the streets and fight the army. Given the influence that Erdoğan has had over the media lately (ie: gaoling everyone who criticises him), I wonder how much public support he actually has. How many people have started buying into his propaganda?
At this point, I'm not sold on the theory that Erdoğan might have orchestrated a completely fake coup as a pretence for a crack-down; however, that doesn't mean he didn't have intelligence on when it was coming, who was likely to be involved, and that it wouldn't be big enough or organised enough to succeed. Whatever the case, it seems everything has landed in the bastard's favour. Even though I don't have friends or family in Turkey, I feel a great deal of sadness for the people. To have lived your whole life in a free and secular democracy—and then have that taken away—must be truly horrible.
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